Citigroup Projects 7 Percent Drop in Macau Industry EBITDA for Second Quarter 2026

Citigroup analysts have outlined expectations for Macau's gaming sector in the second quarter of 2026, projecting a year-on-year decline of 7 percent in industry EBITDA to roughly US$1.92 billion; that figure would mark the lowest level recorded since the third quarter of 2024. The forecast incorporates two primary factors cited by the analysts, including the timing of the football World Cup alongside what they describe as extremely unfavorable hold rates across key segments. Gross gaming revenue receives parallel attention in the same outlook, with projections set at MOP$61.0 billion for the quarter; this amount represents the lowest total since the first quarter of 2025. EBITDA margins stand to contract by 1.5 percentage points, landing near 25.8 percent under the modeled conditions, while the analysts observe that prevailing negative sentiment appears already reflected in current market pricing.

Breakdown of Projected Figures

The detailed estimates place second-quarter 2026 EBITDA at a level that trails both recent quarters and the comparable period from the prior year, with the 7 percent contraction calculated against the same three-month window in 2025. Analysts tie the expected shortfall directly to the World Cup schedule, which historically shifts visitor patterns and spend allocation during peak match periods, combined with hold rates that have fallen well below normalized ranges in recent rolling data. GGR at MOP$61.0 billion aligns with the same downward trajectory, producing the margin compression to approximately 25.8 percent once operating costs and other deductions are applied.

Those projections position the quarter as the weakest performance since reopening-era benchmarks established in late 2024, yet the report stops short of broader commentary on longer-term trajectories. Instead, attention turns to sequential recovery signals already visible in forward bookings and scheduled programming for the second half of the year.

Context Around Sentiment and Recovery Expectations

Negative market sentiment receives explicit mention as a factor already incorporated into prevailing valuations, which means the forecasted numbers do not introduce entirely new downside surprises according to the analysis. The same note highlights an anticipated rebound across the third and fourth quarters, supported by a robust events calendar that includes multiple large-scale gatherings and entertainment programs expected to draw incremental visitation and play volumes.

Observers tracking Macau's integrated resorts note that such calendars have historically delivered measurable lifts once the immediate disruption from major sporting events subsides. The Citigroup view therefore frames the second-quarter softness as a contained, event-driven dip rather than a structural shift, with recovery momentum building once the World Cup concludes and promotional programming ramps up.

Drivers Cited in the Analysis

Hold rates stand out as the second major variable, described as extremely unfavorable within the report; these percentages reflect the actual win retained by operators after payouts and directly influence both GGR realization and subsequent EBITDA conversion. When hold percentages compress below long-term averages, even steady table and slot volumes translate into lower revenue capture, amplifying margin pressure beyond simple volume changes.

The World Cup influence operates through a different channel, primarily affecting foot traffic and spend concentration during high-profile matches. Analysts reference historical patterns from prior tournaments where mid-week and weekend play volumes diverged from baseline expectations, producing measurable but temporary effects on quarterly aggregates. Both elements combine in the model to generate the 7 percent EBITDA decline and the associated margin step-down.

Positioning Within Recent Performance Trends

Placing the second-quarter 2026 outlook against prior periods reveals a sequence of quarterly results that had shown more stability before this projected dip. The MOP$61.0 billion GGR estimate sits below the levels achieved in the first quarter of 2025, while the EBITDA total falls to territory last seen in the third quarter of 2024, indicating a temporary reversion rather than continuation of the upward path observed through much of 2025.

The report positions these outcomes as consistent with the timing of external events and statistical variance in hold performance, without suggesting permanent alteration to underlying demand drivers. Market participants receive the information as an update that aligns with already-discounted expectations, leaving room for the anticipated second-half acceleration once the events calendar takes center stage.

Conclusion

The Citigroup forecast therefore supplies a concise, data-driven snapshot of second-quarter 2026 expectations for Macau's gaming industry, anchored by the 7 percent EBITDA contraction to US$1.92 billion, GGR of MOP$61.0 billion, and margin reduction to 25.8 percent. Those figures incorporate the combined effects of the World Cup and unfavorable hold rates, while also noting that negative sentiment sits already priced in and that a stronger rebound remains anticipated for the third and fourth quarters on the back of scheduled programming. The analysis confines itself to these near-term parameters without extending into longer-range commentary.